![MONZA, ITALY - SEPTEMBER 03: Race winner Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull Racing, Second placed Sergio Perez of Mexico and Oracle Red Bull Racing and Third placed Carlos Sainz of Spain and Ferrari celebrate on the podium during the F1 Grand Prix of Italy at Autodromo Nazionale Monza on September 03, 2023 in Monza, Italy. (Photo by Mario Renzi - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1657194639.jpg?quality=85&w=1920)
![MONZA, ITALY - SEPTEMBER 03: Race winner Max Verstappen of the Netherlands and Oracle Red Bull Racing, Second placed Sergio Perez of Mexico and Oracle Red Bull Racing and Third placed Carlos Sainz of Spain and Ferrari celebrate on the podium during the F1 Grand Prix of Italy at Autodromo Nazionale Monza on September 03, 2023 in Monza, Italy. (Photo by Mario Renzi - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1657194639.jpg?quality=85&w=1920)
If you made predictions for the 2024 Formula 1 season, go back and check them out. Unless you had a crystal ball, you probably pinpointed Max Verstappen as a runaway champion. Maybe you predicted a Ferrari ascendancy or another damp squib from Haas. And if you’re a big F1 fan, you’ve probably never been so happy to be oh, so wrong.
F1’s summer break is winding down, and the final 10 races of F1’s 2024 season are coming up fast. But before we dive headfirst into Zandvoort, Monza, and everything that follows, let’s get up to speed and make sure we know just what to watch for.
The F1 2024 Story So Far
The 2024 Formula 1 season started off exactly as you’d expect: Red Bull Racing secured a 1-2 at the Bahrain Grand Prix, with polesitter Max Verstappen leading every lap and taking the fastest lap in the process. The stage was set for yet another Verstappen runaway title.
At least, it looked that way until Australia, the third race of the year. On the fourth lap of the race, a dislodged brake disc saw Verstappen retire for the first time since the same race back in 2022. Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz Jr. took a shock victory after missing the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix with a nasty case of appendicitis.
It was the first true sign that something was amiss at Red Bull Racing in 2024. Yes, Verstappen still took wins in Japan, China, Imola, Canada, and Spain… but new challengers have arrived.
Lando Norris took his maiden F1 victory with McLaren at Miami after Verstappen struck a bollard. Charles Leclerc took a home victory in Monaco. George Russell secured a win in Austria, with his teammate Lewis Hamilton following suit—first at the British Grand Prix, and then in Belgium. And a young Oscar Piastri, too, took his debut Grand Prix win in Hungary.
Seven different winners in the first 14 races. If I’d had that on my F1 2024 predictions, I’d be out buying a lottery ticket right now.
![Max Verstappen of the Netherlands is driving the Oracle Red Bull Racing RB20 Honda RBPT during the Formula 1 Rolex Belgian Grand Prix 2024 in Francorchamps, Belgium, on July 27, 2024. (Photo by Alessio Morgese/NurPhoto via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2163256475.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![MONZA, ITALY - SEPTEMBER 03: during the F1 Grand Prix of Italy at Autodromo Nazionale Monza on September 03, 2023 in Monza, Italy. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1657183356.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![Charles Leclerc of Scuderia Ferrari is celebrating on the podium during the race of the Monaco GP, the 8th stage of the Formula 1 World Championship in Monaco, Monaco, on May 26, 2024. (Photo by Andrea Diodato/NurPhoto via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2154413067.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![Lando Norris of Great Britain and McLaren F1 Team is standing on the podium at the Formula 1 Hungarian Grand Prix in Mogyorod, Hungary, on July 21, 2024. (Photo by Robert Szaniszlo/NurPhoto via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2162355995.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![Lando Norris of McLaren after the Formula 1 Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps in Spa, Belgium on July 27, 2024. (Photo by Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2163827698.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SPA, BELGIUM - JULY 28: 1st placed George Russell of Great Britain and Mercedes, later disqualified for a car weight infraction, (C), Second placed finisher, later promoted to Race winner Lewis Hamilton of Great Britain and Mercedes (L) and Third placed finisher Oscar Piastri of Australia and McLaren, later promoted to Second placed, (R) celebrate on the podium during the F1 Grand Prix of Belgium at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps on July 28, 2024 in Spa, Belgium. (Photo by Alex Bierens de Haan/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2164333957.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![Mercedes' British driver Lewis Hamilton C kisses the trophy during the awarding ceremony after the Formula 1 British Grand Prix race at the Silverstone Circuit, Britain, July 7, 2024. (Photo by Wu Lu/Xinhua via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2160786419.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
What to Watch for in the Final 10 Races
The final 10 races of the 2024 Formula 1 season will wrap up the European swing before we dip off to Asia, the Americas, and the Middle East. We’re racing old tracks, new tracks, and street tracks—and there are sure to be more surprises waiting for us ahead.
But the number one thing to keep an eye on as we round out the year? Car upgrades.
Every year, the car that a team starts its F1 campaign with will be dramatically different by the final race, and that’s due to the slate of season-long upgrades that the team will implement based both on its weaknesses and on the weaknesses of its competitors.
McLaren and Mercedes have been on top of the upgrade game this year, which has resulted in better performances. Meanwhile, Ferrari implemented an updated performance package in Spain that turned out the be a disaster, as it worsened the Scuderia’s ongoing “porpoising” problems.
Red Bull, too, has suffered in the counter-upgrades department. As the competition brings better and better equipment, the Milton Keynes team has failed to respond. The RB20 is no longer the far-and-away most dominant car of the season. If you want a clue about how any one race weekend will go, keep an eye on the teams bringing upgrades; they may very well tell you all you need to know.
Specifically, you’re going to want to keep an eye on McLaren and Mercedes. The latter likely isn’t going to make a last-minute rush for a World Constructors’ Championship, but Merc has certainly turned up with a revitalized strategy game, better upgrades, and the confidence that it can continue to perform. That’s not likely to change.
But McLaren—now there’s a team that could unseat Red Bull at the top of the WCC. Just 42 points separate the British team from Red Bull; there’s plenty of time for McLaren to bridge that gap.
![BUDAPEST, HUNGARY - JULY 20: 18th placed qualifier Zhou Guanyu of China and Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber walks in the Pitlane during qualifying ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Hungary at Hungaroring on July 20, 2024 in Budapest, Hungary. (Photo by Bryn Lennon - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2162791757.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SPA, BELGIUM - JULY 28: Kevin Magnussen of Denmark and MoneyGram Haas F1 Team during the F1 Grand Prix of Belgium at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps on July 28, 2024 in Spa, Belgium. (Photo by Vince Mignott/MB Media/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2163474748.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SPA, BELGIUM - JULY 28: Logan Sargeant of USA and Williams Racing on the grid during the F1 Grand Prix of Belgium at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps on July 28, 2024 in Spa, Belgium. (Photo by Vince Mignott/MB Media/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2163522263.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SPA, BELGIUM - JULY 27: Valtteri Bottas of Finland and Stake F1 Team Kick Sauber arrives in the Paddock prior to final practice ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Belgium at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps on July 27, 2024 in Spa, Belgium. (Photo by Dean Mouhtaropoulos/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2163899355.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SPA, BELGIUM - JULY 28: Daniel Ricciardo of Australia and Visa Cash App RB prepares to drive on the grid during the F1 Grand Prix of Belgium at Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps on July 28, 2024 in Spa, Belgium. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-2164045876.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
If McLaren can take down Red Bull, then there are sure to be repercussions for both Sergio Perez and the driver market as a whole.
Prior to the summer break, Red Bull heavily implied that if Perez couldn’t seriously improve his performance, then the team would drop him during summer break. Perez didn’t manage to close the gap to his teammate in Belgium but Red Bull announced it’d be keeping the Mexican racer after the break nevertheless.
With Red Bull, though, nothing is ever certain. The team has historically dropped and swapped drivers partway through the season in the past, even after the team has promised to keep them. And if Perez does last through 2024, there’s no guarantee he’ll remain in 2025, despite signing a new contract.
If that’s the case, an already chaotic silly season may get even wilder. Driver swaps began before the season itself when Ferrari announced Lewis Hamilton would replace Carlos Sainz in 2025. Sainz is moving to Williams, Esteban Ocon to Haas, and Nico Hulkenberg to Sauber.
But there are still empty seats waiting to be filled at Alpine, Sauber, Mercedes, and VCARB—and if Perez loses out, potentially one at Red Bull. There are also still plenty of current drivers also scoping out a place on the grid: Daniel Riccardo, Zhou Guanyu, Valtteri Bottas, Kevin Magnussen, and Logan Sargeant.
Finally, we’re also going to be keeping an eye on the midfield and backmarkers. Aston Martin, VCARB, and Haas are duking it out for fifth place in the standings, while Alpine, Williams, and Sauber are all trying desperately to avoid being ranked last in the WCC.
Haas has proven to be something of a surprise this year. Ayao Komatsu has proven that he’s a worthy replacement for Guenther Steiner—if not for his snappy quips, then for his ability to guide the team from the bottom of the leaderboard. Hulkenberg has primarily been leading that charge, and there’s no reason not to expect continued growth throughout the season.
![MEXICO CITY, MEXICO - OCTOBER 27: Yuki Tsunoda of Japan driving the (22) Scuderia AlphaTauri AT04 on track during practice ahead of the F1 Grand Prix of Mexico at Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez on October 27, 2023 in Mexico City, Mexico. (Photo by Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1760581874.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![ZANDVOORT - Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing) during the start of the F1 Grand Prix of the Netherlands at Circuit Zandvoort on August 27, 2023 in Zandvoort, Netherlands. ANP SEM VAN DER WAL (Photo by ANP via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1628177697.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![MONZA, ITALY - SEPTEMBER 03: Carlos Sainz of Spain driving (55) the Ferrari SF-23 and Max Verstappen of the Netherlands driving the (1) Oracle Red Bull Racing RB19 lead the field into turn one at the start during the F1 Grand Prix of Italy at Autodromo Nazionale Monza on September 03, 2023 in Monza, Italy. (Photo by Ryan Pierse/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1657336342.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SAO PAULO, BRAZIL - NOVEMBER 05: Crash, Nico Hulkenberg of Germany driving the Haas F1 VF-23 Ferrari on track during the F1 Grand Prix of Brazil at Autodromo Jose Carlos Pace on November 05, 2023 in Sao Paulo, Brazil. (Photo by Richard Callis ATPImages/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1777872400.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - NOVEMBER 28: Carlos Sainz of Spain and Scuderia Ferrari drives on track during Formula 1 testing at Yas Marina Circuit on November 28, 2023 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by James Gasperotti/Ciancaphoto Studio/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1818765973.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![SINGAPORE, SINGAPORE - SEPTEMBER 17: Carlos Sainz of Spain driving (55) the Ferrari SF-23 leads Charles Leclerc of Monaco driving the (16) Ferrari SF-23 and the rest of the field at the start during the F1 Grand Prix of Singapore at Marina Bay Street Circuit on September 17, 2023 in Singapore, Singapore. (Photo by Mark Thompson/Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1686467848.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
![LAS VEGAS, NV - NOVEMBER 18: McLaren driver Oscar Piastri (81) of Australia drives by the Sphere during the F1 Las Vegas Grand Prix on Saturday, November 18, 2023 on the Las Vegas Street Circuit in Las Vegas, NV. (Photo by Bob Kupbens/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)](https://www.thedrive.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/GettyImages-1790378322.jpg?strip=all&quality=85)
Williams, too, has been slowly clawing back the smallest smidge of performance, though we can expect more to come in 2025, when Carlos Sainz replaces Sargeant.
Two big question marks remain on Alpine and Sauber—teams whose leadership structures have been thrown into chaos all season long. France’s Alpine has a long history of swapping key players in and out with the hope that they’ll land on just the right team principal, the person who can completely change their fortunes. So far, those big dreams haven’t paid off, and now Alpine is rumored to be seeking support from Cadillac to bolster its power unit program.
Sauber is the only team that hasn’t scored a point in 2024, and it seems to be existing in a kind of fugue state until 2026 when it will face a takeover by Audi. It has signed Hulkenberg for 2025, but most of its plans still seem to be up in the air.
It’s been a compelling season, full of surprises and shocking competition. More than anything else, 2024 has taught us to expect the unexpected—and isn’t that really what we love about motorsport?
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